Return Intention

Key Findings

• Top 3 countries of stay abroad: Poland (34%), Germany (21%), Russian Federation (15%)
• Oblasts of origin: Donetska (27%), Luhanska (21%), Zaporitzka (14%).
• Destinations in Ukraine: going to same oblast of origin (90%), to a different oblast (8%)
• Intentions after arrival to Ukraine: long-term stay (48%), short-term visit (24%), 28% do not know.
• Top needs on the way to Ukraine:* general information (84%), food supply (11%), short-term accommodation (2%).
• Top areas of assistance received:* financial support (92%), accommodation (70%), food (59%)

* more than one answer possible

Depuis 2020, la province de Bujumbura Rural, commune de Mutimbuzi, zone de Gatumba a été récurremment touchée par de fortes inondations affectant plusieurs milliers de personnes. Ces catastrophes naturelles ont engendré des déplacements massifs et la création de sites temporaires d'accueil à Kinyinya II et Sobel (Maramvya) afin de comprendre pleinement l'impact de ces événements et d'élaborer des stratégies de réponse adaptées, l'OIM a lancé une enquête de profilage en octobre 2023. Cette étude méticuleuse a permis de profiler 1 267 ménages déplacés, soit 3 889 personnes, dont certains ont depuis bénéficié d'une assistance pour retourner dans leurs foyers.

L'objectif de cette enquête était double : d'une part, évaluer les besoins immédiats des populations affectées pour orienter l'assistance humanitaire, et d'autre part, recueillir des données pour soutenir la planification à long terme en vue d'une résilience accrue face aux futures crises. Les résultats, qui seront présentés en détail dans ce rapport, révèlent non seulement l'étendue des défis auxquels sont confrontés ces ménages, mais aussi leur résilience et leurs perspectives d'avenir

As of September 2023, an estimated 3,674,000 people remain internally displaced in Ukraine with an estimated 6,203,600 displaced abroad according to UNHCR. IOM estimates that 4,573,000 people have returned to their place of habitual residence in Ukraine following a period of displacement, 22 per cent of whom returned from abroad.

To inform targeted interventions aimed at alleviating the vulnerability that stems from poor structural and social conditions in areas of return, the CoRA provides granular data on where returns are occurring, where those who have returned are most vulnerable and why.

Інформаційний бюлетень з оцінки умов повернення містить огляд даних про умови та сталість повернень в Україні, отриманих у рамках 4-го раунду Оцінки умов повернення (CoRA), який проводився в липні та серпні 2023 року в 70 громадах у 20 областях з використанням методології багатосекторальної оцінки на місцевому рівні (MSLA), проведеної за участю ключових інформантів з місцевих органів влади в районах повернення по всій Україні. 

As of September 2023, an estimated 3,674,000 people remain internally displaced in Ukraine with an estimated 6,203,600 displaced abroad according to UNHCR. IOM estimates that 4,573,000 people have returned to their place of habitual residence in Ukraine following a period of displacement, 22 per cent of whom returned from abroad.

To inform targeted interventions aimed at alleviating the vulnerability that stems from poor structural and social conditions in areas of return, the CoRA provides granular data on where returns are occurring, where those who have returned are most vulnerable and why.

Since 24 February 2022, refugees from Ukraine and Third Country Nationals (TCNs) have been fleeing to neighboring countries as a result of the war. As of June 2023, more than twelve million refugees from Ukraine were recorded at various border crossings entering Poland and ten million had crossed back since February 2022. This report is based on surveys collected in Poland between 03 July and 30 September 2023 at the train and bus stations in Przemysl, one of the primary border crossing points between Ukraine and Poland.

Key findings:

• Demographics: 37% of respondents were traveling with at least one child in their group, while 3 per cent had at least one child and at least one elderly person in their household
• Top 3 countries of stay abroad: Poland (46%), Germany (14%), Czechia (11%)
• Top oblasts of origin: Kyiv city (22%), Dnipropetrovska (16%), Zaporizka (14%) Kharkivska (11%).
• Intended destination: 90% of respondents were planning to return to their oblast of origin. Nine per cent of those, who intended on returning to another oblast, were mainly from Donetska and Zaporizka oblasts, as well as Kyiv city
• Intentions  upon  crossing  back: long-term  stay​ (41%), short-term visit (47%), 12% were not sure
• Top needs at the time of interview:* personal safety (53%), financial support (48%), health services (38%), and medication (28%). 42% of respondents did not report any needs
• Top areas of assistance received:* financial support (91%), accommodation assistance (43%), food (34%), WASH (Water, sanitation and hygiene) items (21%), clothes (18%) and transportation support (15%)

*more than one answer possible

Key Findings:

• Top 3 countries of stay: Hungary (63%), Germany (12%), Austria (5%). 
• Top oblasts of origin: Kyiv (24%), Zakarpatska (18%), Dnipropetrovska (14%). 
• Destinations in Ukraine: returning to oblast of origin (85%), returning to a different oblast (14%). Among those intending to return to a different oblast, top intended destinations included: Zakarpatska (68%), Kyiv city (21%), and Lvivska (6.5%).
• Most frequent mode of transport: train (86%).
• Intentions upon crossing back: long-term stay (over 30 days) - 23%, short-term visit (60%), does not know (17%).
• Top needs upon crossing back*: financial support (39%), accommodation (39%), transport (35%).
• Top areas of assistance received*: transport (67%), accommodation (46%), food (37%).

• About 3.7 million people were internally displaced in Ukraine as of September 2023 (IOM Ukraine GPS14 report) and about 5.8 million refugees were recorded across Europe as of end of October 2023 (UNHCR). As of September 2023, almost 4.6 million persons were estimated to be returnees in Ukraine after a period of previous displacement; of them, about 25 per cent (or 1.1 million) were returnees from abroad (IOM Ukraine GPS14 report).
• The number of total border crossings from Ukraine into neighbouring countries from February 2022 until October 2023 reached about 26 million, and at the same time about 18.9 million border crossings were registered in the opposite direction by Ukraine’s border authorities. While some persons returning to Ukraine from abroad intend to remain, others may be engaging in short visits to Ukraine or pendular movements between border areas for a variety of reasons.
• This report presents evidence on persons crossing back to Ukraine from abroad distinguishing between those who aim to remain in Ukraine for longer periods (prospective returnees) and those who plan to pay a short visit (short-time visitors). It is based on 8,563 surveys collected by DTM between July and September 2023 with adult individuals going to Ukraine. About 98 per cent of them were Ukrainians, and 2 per cent Third-Country Nationals (TCNs).
• Sections 2 to 7 focus on the 8,226 surveys with Ukrainian nationals met at the border areas of neighbouring countries to Ukraine: Hungary (333), Poland (925), Republic of Moldova (2,855), Romania (1,589), and Slovakia (2,524). Results are weighted for the number of border crossings into Ukraine from each country during the data collection period. In Section 8, evidence on persons interviewed while crossing back is complemented with data on returnees from abroad collected by DTM in Ukraine.
• The report also discusses the different profiles of Ukrainian nationals surveyed in Latvia (224) while crossing to the Russian Federation with the aim to reach areas of Ukraine which are under the temporary military control of the Russian Federation (Section 9). Additionally, it contains a section dedicated to TCNs crossing into Ukraine from abroad (113 interviews, Section 10). The report ends with a short section elaborating on the Methodology.

Main findings

• Top countries of stay: Slovakia (80%), Czech Republic (4%), Austria (3%), Germany (2%), Ireland (1%) United Kingdom (1%).
• Intentions: 53% going for a short visit, 39% plan to stay in Ukraine (prospective returnees), and 8% undecided.
• Top needs*: health services (48%), medicines (31%), general information (26%), financial support (22%), language courses (22%), employment (21%). *more than one answer was possible (N=1,135).
• Destinations in Ukraine: 86% to the same oblast of origin, 14% to a different oblast in Ukraine: Zakarpatska (61%), Kyiv city (13%), Lvivska (10%).
• Transport to Ukraine: bus (82%), train (17%), car/minibus (1%).
• Travel mode: 66% alone and  34% in group.
• Experiences of discrimination: 13% experienced discrimination throughout their journey.
• Travelling with children: 68% of the respondents travelled with children aged less than 18 years