Return Intention

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the multiple dimensions of fragility in South Sudan at the subnational level: political and legal, social, economic, security, and environmental. By providing evidence-based contextualized insights, the study seeks to guide the development of programming and policies to support peacebuilding efforts in South Sudan, in in alignment with the Humanitarian Development Peace Nexus (HDPN) approach. South Sudan is an important case for the study of fragility because the country is in the process of transitioning from a humanitarian-only response plan to a more recovery-focused approach in which fragility, rather than armed conflict, is the primary barrier to sustainable peace and development.

The study deepens the understanding of how fragility varies across these dimensions within four distinct South Sudanese counties (Yei, Kajo-Keji, Bor, and Wau). It explores the impact of this variation on the local contexts where peacebuilding interventions are carried out by IOM and partners. To address these objectives, the research was conducted through a face-to-face household survey involving 1,595 adult respondents (51 per cent female, 49 per cent male), with approximately 400 participants in each of the four selected counties.

The findings reveal a complex landscape across multiple fragility dimensions. On the political dimension, there is a notable lack of confidence in government authorities at local, state, and national levels, and concerns persist about expressing political opinions in the context of national elections. However, there is a positive trend towards greater acceptance of women in politics. In the security dimension, perceptions vary across counties, with overall low trust in security actors and a reliance on informal mechanisms for dispute resolution. Informal armed groups continue to be seen as a source of insecurity, and concerns about renewed conflict linger. Opinions on transitional justice, accountability, and reconciliation are divided. In the social dimension, feelings of community acceptance are generally high, regardless of displacement status, although these results should be interpreted cautiously in light of potential social desirability bias on sensitive questions. Gender-based violence (GBV) including child marriage remains a challenging issue. Around 23 per cent of respondents had experienced Housing, Land, and Property (HLP) disputes, which are typically resolved by village chiefs, and acceptance of women’s land ownership was mixed. Lack of documentation of legal ownership and conflicts over natural resources including cattle and water are significant risk factors for HLP disputes. The majority of respondents rely on subsistence farming for their livelihood, and have limited purchasing power. Many also report an increase in the number and frequency of natural hazards contributing to environmental fragility.

The analysis shows important differences between the four counties across different dimensions of fragility. Bor stands out as the county with the highest levels of security, environmental, and economic fragility. Kajo-Keji, on the other hand, exhibits the highest level of political fragility, alongside high scores in economic and environmental fragility. Yei County records the highest level of social fragility and moderate levels of political and security fragility. In contrast, Wau County displays moderate overall fragility levels, with the lowest political fragility scores, along with low levels of social, economic and environmental fragility. Although the baseline pilot study does not enable precise identification of the drivers of subnational variation in fragility, we suggest potential explanations based on local context that could be more rigorously tested with follow-on studies.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to assess multiple dimensions of fragility in South Sudan at the subnational level in order to inform evidence-based and locally contextualized peacebuilding programmatic interventions in line with the HDPN approach.

Specifically, the study is designed to advance the following objectives:

1. Improved understanding of how variation in fragility across five dimensions (political and legal, social, economic, security, and environmental) in four different counties affects the local contexts where IOM and partners implement peacebuilding interventions;
2. Inform evidence-based and context-specific programming and policies within the HDPN approach;
3. Identify remaining knowledge gaps and open questions in need of further research including the effects of different types of fragility on efforts to promote sustainable development and peace.

Understanding variation in fragility across different regions within the country is crucial for developing context-specific interventions in line with the HDPN approach. This pilot study is the first empirical analysis of subnational variation in fragility in South Sudan across five different dimensions: political and legal, economic, social, security, and environmental. The results provide detailed insights into the needs of the four counties studied, which have broader implications for IOM programming in South Sudan.

1.    This report provides field-level data to complement and validate findings from the 2020 Flood Damage and Needs Assessment (FDNA) on the 2020 seasonal floods (June-December) in South Sudan which largely relied on the analysis of remote sensing and geodata. The World Bank tasked IOM to conduct field assessments in three payams (administrative level 3) to collect empirical data from flood-affected areas to verify and substantiate findings from the FDNA.
2.    The FDNA Field Validation combines four sources of primary data: two quantitative tools mapping the flood impact and exploring community responses of which one was conducted at the boma level (administrative level 4) and one at a more granular level (facility, livelihood area and settlement level), as well as two qualitative tools of which one is a set of Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) at the boma level and the other is a series of Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with participants recruited from key stakeholder groups at the national level. IOM interviewed and consulted more than 1,131 individuals for the exercise across all tools.
3.    This report provides insights on multiple levels of granularity concerning the 2020 floods in terms of the extent and severity of impact on public infrastructure, shelter, displacement, livelihoods, Health, Water, Hygiene and Sanitation (WASH), and education.  

●        In terms of infrastructure, findings confirm and illustrate the floods’ debilitating impact on public buildings, roads and livelihood institutions. Some 21 per cent of 709 accessed facilities were found to be dysfunctional. Half of all remaining functional facilities were affected by the floods in 2020. Diminished road access was observed across sectors as communities were unable to access important locations such as healthcare, markets, and educational facilities. Access constraints not only limited movement out of flooded areas, but also prevented aid from reaching populations in need. Impacts on damaged facilities were not only severe (more than 50% reported medium to severe damage) but also protracted (more than 80% of damage facilities were still affected between one and six months later).
●        For a population largely dependent on the land, the floods made most forms of livelihood activities impossible. Farmers reported being unable to harvest anything in half of the accessed bomas where farming is practiced. Waterlogged fields meant that farming was rendered impossible long after the rains had stopped, and a lack of harvest made planting in the subsequent season impossible. The analysis also indicates that tensions arose between farmers and cattle keepers, and also among various cattle keeping groups, as a result of flooding on usable land. Communities reported losing a large number of cattle which often drowned or succumbed to diseases that spread after the floods subsided. 

●        The 2020 floods caused displacement within 11, from 9 and to 9 out of 16 assessed boma. Movements remained localized in most cases, with exceptions in Bor, where population movement was more common across county and state lines. Communities quickly switched from being hosts communities to being hosted by other communities as IDPs, while many struggled to support arriving IDPs because of the additional stress the floods had put on available resources. IOM found that recurrence of  flooding and longevity of stagnant water has changed the patterns and temporality of displacement, which after the 2020 flood was often long-term with periods of displacement lasting up to the time of assessment (September 2021) in half of the assessed boma.
●        Shelter damage was severe and widespread in all assessed boma. On a settlement level, the FIFIS tool revealed that, with few exceptions, the floods damaged shelters in almost all assessed areas (97% or 63 of 65 flooded settlements). Floods moreover hindered access to common shelter building materials, preventing the rehabilitation of homes. In the majority of settlements, shelters had not been repaired in any way and remained largely inhabitable (56% or 35/63).
●        Respondents reported an increase in disease outbreaks, notably malaria upsurges, and a simultaneous decrease in access to healthcare.

   Access to education was similarly stressed, most commonly due impassible roads but also damaged educational facilities.

4. This report also explores community-based disaster risk management (CBDRM) in South Sudan, with a focus on identifying current capacities at the local level, and gaps that stakeholders can address through strategic support and programming. In line with South Sudan’s nascent National Disaster Risk Management Policy, and the recurrence of devastating floods and the heightened vulnerability of communities to climate-related shocks, , government, humanitarians and development partners are seeking to strengthen disaster preparedness and response across the country, including at the community level. The analysis shows a range of ad hoc CBDRM initiatives, primarily through the form of mobilization to build dykes using local materials, the establishment of disaster risk management committees, and mobilization to safe areas. Additionally, while women and youth often bear tremendous responsibility in flood-affected communities, including caring for vulnerable household members, as well as building and maintaining dykes, they continue to be marginalized in local decision-making. Local and indigenous knowledge is often used as one mechanism for communities to anticipate and prepare for floods, however this knowledge has not been integrated into early warning systems and formal coordination mechanisms developed by partners and government institutions. Key gaps were identified in terms of coordination amongst partners and government stakeholders, as CBDRM mechanisms continue to operate at an ad hoc level. Lastly, compounding factors have made it challenging for stakeholders to support CBDRM initiatives, particularly in relation to inter-communal violence and displacement.

As of 27 December 2023, IOM estimates that around 3,689,000 people remained internally displaced in Ukraine1 while UNHCR indicates that further 5,974,800 people were displaced abroad. As the war continues, large numbers of displaced have returned home. IOM estimates that, as of 27 December 2023, approximately 4,455,000 people have returned spontaneously to their place of habitual residence in Ukraine following a period of displacement of at least two weeks (internal displacement or cross-border). Of these, 26 per cent have returned from abroad.

To inform targeted interventions aimed at alleviating the vulnerability that stems from poor structural and social conditions in areas of return, the CoRA provides granular data on where returns are occurring, where those who have returned are most vulnerable and why.

Key Findings

• Top countries of stay: Poland (31%), Russian Federation (20%), Germany (19%), and Czeck Republic (5%).
• Intentions: 49% plan to stay in Ukraine (prospective returnees), 29% going for a short visit, 20% undecided, 2% preferred not to answer.
• Top needs*: general information (83%), food supplies (11%), short-term accommodation (3%), financial support (3%), health services (1%), long-term accommodation (1%).
• Assistance received*: financial support (91%), accommodation (67%), food supplies (60%), personal hygiene and sanitary supplies (30%), clothes & shoes (24%), transportation (21%).
• Destinations in Ukraine: 86% to the same oblast of origin, 14% to a different oblast in Ukraine: Donetska (33%), Kyiv city (15%), Luhanska (12%).
• Transport to Ukraine: minibus (41%), car (27%), foot (23%).
• Travel mode: 68% alone and 32% in group.

*Multiple answers possible

Key findings

• Top countries of stay: Slovakia (77%), Czechia (3%), Austria (2%), United Kingdom (2%), Ireland (2%), Germany (2%).
• Intentions: 56% going for short visit, 37% plans to stay in Ukraine (prospective returnees), and 7% is undecided.
• Reasons for short visit*: meeting family (46%), seeking healthcare (19%), collecting documents (9%). (*more than one answer possible)
• Reasons for long stay*: returning from a short visit abroad (33%), did shopping abroad (11%), improved situation in place of origin (10%). (*more than one answer possible)
• Destinations in Ukraine: 83% travels to the region of origin, 16% to a different region in Ukraine, and 1% is undecided: Zakarpatska (42%), city of Kyiv (13%), Dnipropetrovska (6%).
• Top needs*: healthcare (22%), medication (13%), financial support (12%), general information (12%), employment support (11%). (*more than one answer possible)
• Households*: 14% travels with at least one infant (0-4 years-old), 56% travels with at least one child (5-17 years-old), 45% are single-headed households, and 14% travels with elderly (60+ years-old). (*more than one answer possible)

The Crossing Back surveys conducted between January-December 2023 focused on individuals crossing back to Ukraine from or through Hungary, either for the short-term or long-term. For the purpose of the analysis, ‘’short-term visitors’’ are those who intended to spend 0-30 days in Ukraine, while respondents intending to stay for more than one month are labelled as “prospective returnees”.

The analysis of the survey participants’ marital status revealed a diverse range of relationship statuses. In total, over 61 per cent of the surveyed nationals identified as married, while 18 per cent of them reported to be single. Additionally, 12 per cent indicated being in a partnership, six per cent were widowed, and two per cent divorced. In 2023, the highest proportion of men were married (70%), followed by those who were single (17%) and those in partnerships (6%). Among women, a similar trend was recorded, as 59 per cent were married and 19 per cent were single. However, a higher proportion (13%) reported to be in partnerships, surpassing the equivalent figure for men.

Among the 1,253 survey participants, 76 per cent (N=948) were Ukrainian nationals, and 24 per cent (N=305) were Third-Country nationals (TCNs) with residence in Ukraine. The present analysis is derived from the responses of the Ukrainian participants.

The onset of the war in Ukraine has caused substantial displacement of people both within the Republic of Moldova’s borders and throughout the neighbouring region. The refugee situation is coupled with significant movement flows of Moldovan labour migrants returning from abroad, in particular from Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and other neighbouring countries. The effects of the Ukraine crisis, combined with the lingering consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic could potentially change the Republic of Moldova’s migration dynamics, leading to a decrease in emigration and an increase in the number of Moldovan citizens returning home.
This may have severe long term effects on the already strained Moldovan economy hindering its capacity to respond to the humanitarian and economic challenges attendant to the Ukrainian crisis. There are major gaps in data on Moldovan returnees, including information on their socio-economic profiles, needs and vulnerabilities as well as their intentions for their future. To fill those gaps the International Organization for Migration (IOM), as the leading inter-governmental organization promoting humane and orderly migration, has conducted a survey with Moldovan returnees in order to assess how the war in Ukraine has affected them.

On 27 January 2024, the IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) in collaboration with WFP, ACTED, LWF, and Save the Children conducted a rapid intention survey in Renk TC and its adjacent area to understand the return intentions of the population, preferred destinations of return as well as reasons for choosing to remain in the transit center.

За даними УВКБ ООН, станом на вересень 2023 року в Україні залишаються внутрішньо переміщеними особами приблизно 3 674 000 осіб, а за кордоном – приблизно 6 203 600 осіб. За оцінками МОМ, 4 573 000 осіб повернулися до місця свого постійного проживання в Україні після періоду переміщення, 22% з яких повернулися з-за кордону.

Для інформування про цільові заходи, спрямовані на пом'якшення вразливості, яка виникає через погані структурні та соціальні умови в районах повернення, CoRA надає детальні дані про те, де відбувається повернення, де ті, хто повернувся, є найбільш вразливими та чому.

On 15 December 2023, the IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) in collaboration with ACTED, ADRA, and GOAL conducted a rapid intention survey in Renk TC and its adjacent area to understand the return intentions of the population, preferred destinations of return as well as reasons for choosing to remain in the transit center.