While the north of Iraq was gripped by the ISIL conflict, social movements, and popular demands for change to the status quo were growing in the center and south of the country. The recurrence of protests and demonstrations trended upwards after 2017,1 feeding a negative drift in the social and political environment in these areas. Frustration over poor governance and stalled living conditions formed the base of the population’s demands for change. The lack of (efficient) responses contributed to growing distrust in institutions.2 Underlying this trend is a sense of marginalization, especially in the southern governorates of Iraq, which this brief aims to analyze in more detail. This brief is part of a larger research project, A Climate of Fragility, carried out by IOM Iraq and Social Inquiry, that provides the first detailed profiling of southern governorates in Iraq in a decade, exploring population demographics, housing, access to services, socio-economic situation, agriculture, migration, wellbeing, governance, security, and social cohesion. The profiling is based on a large-scale household survey. The survey included a household module (applicable to the overall household situation), a personal module (gathering perceptions of the respondent), and a roster module (collecting personal characteristics of each household member). A total of 3,904 respondents were surveyed between December 2020 and January 2021 across the 18 districts in Basra, Thi-Qar, and Missan governorates. Thus, the sample is statistically representative at the governorate and district level, with district-level sampling stratified by urbanicity and gender, generating a representative sample for urban and rural respondents and male and female respondents. The outputs of this project also include a household profiling report of Basra, Thi-Qar, and Missan governorates, two additional thematic briefs on various forms of capital and employment, and an online portal that includes all reports and analysis, key findings, a dashboard, and public datasets for use.

DTM has been tracking climate-induced displacement across the central and southern regions of Iraq since June 2018. Drought, land degradation and increased salinity in important rivers and tributaries continue to place a strain on the agriculture, livestock herding and fishing industries, with many families unable to guarantee sufficient and sustainable livelihoods in rural areas. DTM’s tracking of climate-induced displacement aims to provide data on the number and location of vulnerable families forced to displace due to climatic and environmental factors. Data collection for this update took place between 1 and 15 September 2023. Data are collected through IOM’s Rapid Assessment and Response Teams (RARTs), who are deployed across Iraq (20% of enumerators are female). IOM’s RARTs collect data through interviews with key informants utilizing a large, well-established network of over 2,000 key informants that includes community leaders, mukhtars, local authorities and security forces. As of 15 September 2023, 21,798 families (130,788 individuals) remain displaced because of drought conditions across 12 governorates. Of these, 9,934 families are displaced within their district of origin (46%). The displaced families are dispersed across 471 locations, with the majority (74%) being urban locations.

DTM has been tracking climate-induced displacement across the central and southern regions of Iraq since June 2018. Drought, land degradation and increased salinity in important rivers and tributaries continue to place a strain on the agriculture, livestock herding and fishing industries, with many families unable to guarantee sufficient and sustainable livelihoods in rural areas. DTM’s tracking of climate-induced displacement aims to provide data on the number and location of vulnerable families forced to displace due to climatic and environmental factors. Data collection for this update took place between 1 and 15 March 2023. Data are collected through IOM’s Rapid Assessment and Response Teams (RARTs), who are deployed across Iraq (21% of enumerators are female). IOM’s RARTs collect data through interviews with key informants utilizing a large, well-established network of over 9,500 key informants that includes community leaders, mukhtars, local authorities and security forces. As of 15 March 2023, 12,212 families (73,272 individuals) remain displaced because of drought conditions across ten governorates. Of these, 4,659 families are displaced within their district of origin (38%). The displaced families are dispersed across 347 locations, with the majority (76%) being urban locations.

DTM has been tracking climate-induced displacement across the central and southern regions of Iraq since June 2018. Drought, land degradation and increased salinity in important rivers and tributaries continues to place a strain on the agricultural sector, with many families unable to guarantee sufficient and sustainable livelihoods in rural areas. The IOM-DTM tracking of climateinduced displacement aims to provide data on the number and location of vulnerable families forced to displace due to climatic and environmental factors. Data collection for this update took place between 1 and 15 September 2022. Data are collected through Rapid Assessment and Response Teams (RARTs), who are deployed across Iraq (20% of enumerators are female). RARTs collect data through interviews with key informants utilizing a large, well-established network of over 9,500 key informants that includes community leaders, mukhtars, local authorities and security forces. As of 15 September 2022, 10,464 families (62,784 individuals) remain displaced because of drought conditions across ten governorates. Of these, 3,854 families are displaced within their district of origin (37%). The displaced families are dispersed across 259 locations, with the majority (76%) being urban locations

Displaced families are likely to be among the most vulnerable to climatic and environmental changes that can impact livelihoods, food security and social cohesion. Sustainable return and reintegration can be determined by many factors but the role of climatic change and environmental degradation in return dynamics is insufficiently understood. The impact of climate change on the displaced and returnee populations in Iraq remains an important gap in existing research and monitoring, yet addressing this gap is vital as environmental trends worsen and humanitarian response planning ceases at the end of 2022.

This factsheet provides a summary of the data on these indicators with the aim of highlighting trends and geographic areas of concern to guide more comprehensive and granular assessments of the vulnerability factors and mobility drivers among displaced and returned families living in locations affected by climate change and environmental degradation.

In order to better define the magnitude and geographic prevalence of issues pertaining to environmental degradation, climate-induced migration, economic insecurity, a lack of investment in development, tribal conflict, criminal and political violence, and civic mistrust and unrest in southern Iraq, IOM and Social Inquiry designed this profiling of Basra, Thi-Qar, and Missan governorates to serve as go-to sources of evidence to shape further in-depth research, analysis, and advocacy on specific issues, geographical areas, and/or population groups and guide the design, monitoring, and evaluation of interventions and policies to best meet the needs of people in these fragile environments. The specifically designed indicators framework for this profiling focuses on a breadth of topics including demographics, housing, access to services, socio-economic situation, agriculture, migration, wellbeing, governance, security, and social cohesion and divided into three levels: household characteristics, individual perceptions and attitudes, and roster of household members. A total of 3,904 surveys were collected across all 18 districts in these three governorates between December 2021 and January 2022. This sample size guarantees the standard 5% margin of error for data for each governorate and an 8% margin of error at district level. In addition, for each district, the sampling was also stratified by urbanicity and gender, thus generating a representative sample for urban and rural areas as well as for male and female respondents that can be analyzed at different levels of disaggregation.

DTM has been tracking climate-induced displacement in Ninewa since June 2021. In almost all cases, displacement of returnee families has occurred because low rainfall severely impacted households’ ability to provide fodder for livestock. Some seasonal displacement occurs each year, but the low precipitation and reduced vegetation observed in 2021 resulted in significant displacement in southern rural areas of Ninewa Governorate.

This update presents data collected from 1 to 15 June 2022. Data is collected through IOM’s Rapid Assessment and Response Teams (RARTs), who are deployed across Iraq (20% of enumerators are female). IOM’s RARTs collect data through key informant interviews with a network of over 9,500 key informants that includes community leaders, mukhtars, local authorities and security forces.

Environmental degradation is increasingly and strongly felt in the southern governorates of Iraq. A gradual but consistent decrease of water flow and water quality over the last decades, and worsening in the last 10 years in particular, has meant that the agricultural sector, traditionally the main workforce employer in rural areas, is unable to guarantee sufficient and sustainable livelihoods for the communities living there. A direct consequence of this maladaptation is the forced migration of rural populations, oftentimes towards nearby urban areas including Basra, Nassiriya, and Amara in search of better opportunities to sustain their lives.

This report draws on the results from data covering 802 residents of Basra City (710 local residents and 92 migrants within the last decade), across 49 streets, to identify the particular issues facing high-migration parts of the city that hinder migrants’ ability to sustainably and peacefully integrate in an already fragile urban setting. Data collection was conducted in July and August 2021. 

this report puts forward the need for a two-pronged approach that focuses on enhancing the adaptation capacity of recipient areas such as Basra (and other close-by urban areas) to an increasing population, at the same time as attention is kept on districts currently forcing families to migrate – mostly the rural, neglected hinterland that is the scenario of extreme environmental degradation, absence of diversified economic opportunities, and poor public infrastructure and provision

Environmental challenges such as water scarcity, pollution and reduced ecosystem services can affect people’s income generation possibilities and their health and physical wellbeing, and can therefore be a factor in the decision to leave one’s place of residence. Environmental factors are among the drivers of displacement and migration, along with political, demographic, economic and social factors. This report focuses on understanding variations in water quantity and water quality in central and south Iraq in the last two decades and on providing insight for the future. The report also suggests key recommendations to mitigate the water crisis. To further this understanding, an exploratory modelling system including hydrological, water resource and water quality models was developed for the Euphrates and Tigris rivers basin. The main water problems identified are mainly linked to water shortages for irrigated agriculture and poor water quality due to excessively high total dissolved solids (TDS), that is, salinity levels. Further research on the reasons why some people displace from the most affected areas while others remain would be required to better understand the link between water issues and displacement.

In September 2023, the Prime Minister Office’s, in conjunction with Ministry of Water & Environment and Uganda National Meteorological Authority published an alert on the potential impacts of floods related to el niño during the September – December rainy season. To monitor those, DTM Uganda, in collaboration with District Disaster Management Committees and Ministries Departs & Agencie activated its Emergency Event Tracking. In fact, between 1 October and 14 November 2023, over 79,000 individuals have been affected by el niño-related floods and other associated events related to heavy rains, such as landslides, mudslides, and traffic road accidents. Widespread heavy rains have caused significant damage to roads, bridges and properties across various regions, disrupting socio-economic activities and access to education, markets and health facilities; while above 2,600 acres of cultivable land have been destroyed exposing affected communities to food insecurity, especially to the almost 23,600 IDPs.