Somalia’s population is increasingly exposed by climate extremes, with 2023 seeing the worst drought in decades followed by the most extensive floods in generations within the span of just a few months. The vast majority of people who fled their homes were displaced by climate. At the same time, the number of people newly or re-displaced due to conflict and insecurity in 2023 also stood at an all-time high. The impact of climate change, conflict and insecurity, and other factors have continued to push Somali civilians away from their homes and into overcrowded towns and cities. Consequently, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) has reached close to four million people, one of the largest globally. (Somalia 2024 HRP).
Developed in response to a growing need to anticipate displacement scenarios, IOM Somalia’s DTM Unit in partnership with the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) is pleased to make available this Movement Projections Dashboard. The dashboard is based on a predictive model which forecasts the scale of internal displacement during the period between 1 October and 31 December 2024, with a total of 3.7 million IDPs expected at the end of the quarter (representing an increase of over 95,000 IDPs).
In the dashboard, users can view different displacement estimations and displacement dynamics based on the different triggers - drought, flooding, conflict – each of which have a different effect on movements. The model estimates intra and inter-district movements at district level and their impact on the district IDP stock over a three-month period. Additional weather forecast data, Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) and conflict data is also available on the dashboard to complement the understanding of the Somalia context.
Somalia Movement Projections Analysis Overview Sheet
If you have any questions regarding this dashboard, please send an email to: iomsomaliadtm@iom.int
