In 2023, Somalia is facing its worst drought for at least 40 years, after five consecutive failed rainy seasons. Simultaneously, certain districts face severe risks of flooding surrounding the Juba and Shabelle rivers. This double environmental crisis has combined with persistent security threats posed by extremist non-state armed groups to cause one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises, with around 4 million IDPs recorded across the country.
IOM Somalia’s DTM Unit is pleased to make available the Movement Projections Dashboard here, which forecasts displacement and return movements in the period between 30 June and 31 December 2023.
Developed in response to a growing need to anticipate displacement scenarios, its objective is to estimate the scale of (re-)displacement and return over a six-month period to inform humanitarian planning.
In the dashboard, users can view different displacement scenarios based on the presence of movement factors - drought, flooding, rain, conflict, and humanitarian assistance – each of which have a different effect on movements. The model estimates incoming and outgoing movements at district level and their impact on the district IDP stock over a six-month period. The projections cover the top 20 districts of displacement, which together host 90% of the country’s total IDP population.
If you have any questions regarding this dashboard, please send an email to: firstname.lastname@example.org