Ukraine Response — Regional Analysis — Ukrainians and TCNs Crossing Back to Ukraine in Q3 2023 (July-September)
- About 3.7 million people were internally displaced in Ukraine as of September 2023 (IOM Ukraine GPS14 report) and about 5.8 million refugees were recorded across Europe as of end of October 2023 (UNHCR). As of September 2023, almost 4.6 million persons were estimated to be returnees in Ukraine after a period of previous displacement; of them, about 25 per cent (or 1.1 million) were returnees from abroad (IOM Ukraine GPS14 report).
- The number of total border crossings from Ukraine into neighbouring countries from February 2022 until October 2023 reached about 26 million, and at the same time about 18.9 million border crossings were registered in the opposite direction by Ukraine’s border authorities. While some persons returning to Ukraine from abroad intend to remain, others may be engaging in short visits to Ukraine or pendular movements between border areas for a variety of reasons.
- This report presents evidence on persons crossing back to Ukraine from abroad distinguishing between those who aim to remain in Ukraine for longer periods (prospective returnees) and those who plan to pay a short visit (short-time visitors). It is based on 8,563 surveys collected by DTM between July and September 2023 with adult individuals going to Ukraine. About 98 per cent of them were Ukrainians, and 2 per cent Third-Country Nationals (TCNs).
- Sections 2 to 7 focus on the 8,226 surveys with Ukrainian nationals met at the border areas of neighbouring countries to Ukraine: Hungary (333), Poland (925), Republic of Moldova (2,855), Romania (1,589), and Slovakia (2,524). Results are weighted for the number of border crossings into Ukraine from each country during the data collection period. In Section 8, evidence on persons interviewed while crossing back is complemented with data on returnees from abroad collected by DTM in Ukraine.
- The report also discusses the different profiles of Ukrainian nationals surveyed in Latvia (224) while crossing to the Russian Federation with the aim to reach areas of Ukraine which are under the temporary military control of the Russian Federation (Section 9). Additionally, it contains a section dedicated to TCNs crossing into Ukraine from abroad (113 interviews, Section 10). The report ends with a short section elaborating on the Methodology.