Ukraine Response — Regional Analysis #1 — Ukrainian Refugees and TCNs crossing to Ukraine (16 April - 31 May 2022)

Starting on 24 February 2022, the war in Ukraine triggered an unprecedented humanitarian crisis and generated large scale displacement both within Ukraine and to the neighbouring countries. As of the end of May, 7.1 million persons were internally displaced in Ukraine1 and almost 7 million crossings of refugees and other Third-Country-Nationals (TCNs) not in need of international protection from Ukraine into the neighbouring countries were reported.2 However, since April, an increasing number of returns have been identified both from other locations in Ukraine and self-reported returns from abroad and according to UNHCR about 2.1 million crossings were registered from neighbouring countries into Ukraine as of the end of May.

This report is based on 3,424 valid surveys collected by IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) in four European countries neighbouring Ukraine with adult refugees from Ukraine and TCNs crossing to Ukraine between 16 April and 31 May 2022: 708 surveys in Poland, 2,102 in the Republic of Moldova, 514 in Romania and 100 in Slovakia. Total results were weighted with equal weights per each country sub-sample.

Individual crossings back into Ukraine are not necessarily returnees and conclusions on definitive trends cannot yet be drawn. The sample is not representative of all persons crossing to Ukraine and results should only be considered as indicative.