Afghanistan - Flow Monitoring Quarterly Report 3 (July - September 2024) [ENG]

Over the past several decades, frequent movements across the borders with the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan characterized much of Afghanistan’s cross-border mobility dynamics. Afghan nationals cross back and forth across these borders for a variety of reasons, including to pursue economic opportunities, to seek safety, to access healthcare, or to visit family members, in addition to other short-term travel. As of September 2024, there were an estimated 3.75 million Afghan nationals living in the Islamic Republic of Iran, and approximately 2.05 million living in Pakistan1. 

In October 2023, officials in both the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan called for the expulsion of undocumented foreign nationals. Since the majority of undocumented foreign nationals in both countries are Afghan nationals, the policies triggered increased return movements between October and December 2023. In April 2024, several media outlets in Pakistan announced a second phase of the “Illegal Foreigners’ Repatriation Plan (IFRP)”, which reportedly established a deadline for unregistered or undocumented foreigners to voluntarily return to their countries or face deportation. The government of Pakistan did not initially implement the deportation measures announced during this second phase. However, the government subsequently announced policies to implement deportations in June 2024. Additionally, Iranian officials have recently announced plans to deport two million Afghan nationals by early 2025. 

To monitor increased deportations and other forms of cross-border movement, IOM-DTM Afghanistan implemented DTM Flow Monitoring (FM) methodology to track cross-border movements, including volume, intended destinations, reasons for movement, and intended lengths of stay. This report includes data analysis on cross-border movement across the borders between Afghanistan and both Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran from 01 July 2024 to 30 September 20242. 

DTM monitored 973,696 individuals entering Afghanistan, 786,769 leaving Afghanistan, and interviewed over 90,912 individuals on their reasons for movement between July and September 2024. Data was collected from 11 different crossing points at the borders with the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan. All assessed border points fall into two categories: those connected to the National Highway, or “main” crossing points, which include Islam Qala, Milak, Spin Boldak, and Torkham, and those not connected to the National Highway, which include Abu Nasr Farahi, Dak, Baramcha, Angor Ada, Ghulam Khan, Nazar Posta and Pathan. Analyses throughout the report will reflect the differences between these types of crossing points.

The following section outlines the two main methodological components: Flow Monitoring Counting (FMC) and Flow Monitoring Surveys (FMS). The report is structured in three main sections: 1) Cumulative Flow Trends, which summarizes all recorded cross-border movements, 2) Mobility Dynamics: The Islamic Republic of Iran; and 3) Mobility Dynamics: Pakistan. The second and third sections includes analyses of cross-border movements entering and exiting Afghanistan, as well as an overview of reasons for movement, travel documentation, and intended destinations. The report concludes by briefly comparing the cross-border dynamics into and from Afghanistan from both countries.