Return migration

The COVID-19 pandemic marked an unprecedented shock to human mobility, shuttering borders and restricting movements in ways not seen in our lifetime. This report reflects the first attempt to assess how human movements has changed in the wake of this seismic event, by analysing Flow Monitoring data from the International Organization for Migration that surveys migrants at formal and informal border crossings. This report sketches how movements have fully recovered from pandemic-era restrictions and how they are being shaped by climate and displacement shocks through seven cases studies that cover a wide range of migrant destinations. This report is the third in a three-part series on the impact of COVID-19 on human mobility. 

This report employs data collected within the framework of the Crossing Back surveys conducted in Romania between January and December 2023 with Ukrainian nationals who were either crossing back for a short-time visit or returning for a long-term period to Ukraine from or through Romania. The analysis considers ‘’short-term visitors’’ those persons who intended to spend 0-30 days in Ukraine, while respondents planning to stay for more than a month are defined as “prospective returnees”.

The survey included answers from 5,773 Ukrainian nationals living in or passing through Romania who were travelling to Ukraine. Among those interviewed before crossing back into Ukraine, the majority stayed in Romania (59%), followed by Bulgaria (17%) or Germany (5%). Additional countries of residence included Italy (4%), the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (3%), Türkiye (2%), Belgium (2%), Greece (1%), Austria (1%), with the remaining 6% distributed among other nations.

The travel intentions of the surveyed Ukrainian nationals show that most respondents (53%) were “short-term visitors”, while 27 per-cent were prospective returnees. Another 20 per cent were not sure regarding their visit period. Also, most UA citizens were travelling back to their oblast of origin (93%), with most respondents originating from Odeska, Chernivetska, Mykolaivska, Ivan-Frankivska, City of Kiyv and Kharvivska.

Constatări cheie:

• Top 3 țări de ședere în străinătate: Republica Moldova (48%), România (11%), Turcia (7%)
• Top 3 regiuni* de origine: Odesa (35%), orașul și regiunea Kyiv (22%), Mîkolaiiv (7%) *Regiuni din Ucraina
• Destinațiile planificate: spre regiunea originară (92%), spre o regiune diferită (8%): orașul Kyiv, Vinița și Odesa
• Necesități*: sprijin financiar (22%), medicamente și servicii medicale (9%), suport pentru siguranța și securitatea personală (8%), fără necesități imediate (35%)
• Intenții de ședere: ședere pe termen lung (58%), vizită de scurtă durată (38%), nu știe (4%)

* Mai mult de un răspuns posibil

Războiul din Ucraina a provocat deplasări substanțialede persoane atât în interiorul Republicii Moldova, cât și în întreaga regiune învecinată. Situația refugiaților este variată de fluxuri semnificative de migranți moldoveni care se întorc din străinătate, în special din Ucraina, Federația Rusă și alte țări vecine. Efectele crizei din Ucraina, combinate cu consecințele persistente ale pandemiei COVID-19, ar putea schimba dinamica migrației în Republica Moldova, ducând la o scădere a emigrației și la o creștere a numărului de cetățeni moldoveni care se întorc acasă. Acest lucru ar putea avea efecte grave pe termen lung asupra economiei moldovenești, care este deja afectată, împiedicând capacitatea acesteia de a răspunde provocărilor umanitare și economice legate de criza ucraineană. Există lacune majore în ceea ce privește datele referitoare la repatriații moldoveni, inclusiv informații privind profilurile socio-economice, nevoile, vulnerabilitățile și intențiile lor pentru viitor. Pentru a suplini aceste lacune, Organizația Internațională pentru Migrație (OIM), în calitate de organizație interguvernamentală care promovează migrația umană și ordonată, a realizat un sondaj cu repatriații moldoveni pentru a evalua modul în care războiul i-a afectat.

Ключові висновки:

• Топ 3 країни перебування: Республіка Молдова (48%), Румунія (11%), Туреччина (7%)
• Топ 3 області* походження: Одеська (35%), місто Київ та Київська (22%), Миколаївська (7%) *Області в Україні
• Заплановані пункти призначення: В область походження (92%), В іншу область (8%): Місто Київ, Вінницька & Одеська
• Потреби*: Фінансова підтримка (22%), Ліки та медичні послуги (9%), Підтримка особистої безпеки та захист (8%), Немає нагальних потреб (35%)
• Наміри: Довгострокове перебування (58%), Короткий візит (38%), Не знає (4%)

* Можливо більше однієї відповіді

This document presents an analysis of interviews conducted with all individuals assisted in their voluntary return by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) between 2017 and 2023 to one of the 23 countries covered by the West and Central Africa region (WCA). The analysis combines datasets from both Assisted Voluntary Return and Reintegration (AVRR) and Voluntary Humanitarian returns (VHR).

The Ukrainians and Third Country Nationals Crossing Back to Ukraine report presents findings from face-to-face interviews with individuals crossing back into Ukraine from five neighboring countries (Hungary, Poland, the Republic of Moldova, Romania, and Slovakia).

The findings in this report are based off on 27,653 surveys collected by DTM in 2023 and focuses in particular on the 6,086 surveys of adult individuals going to Ukraine during the fourth quarter of 2023 (October and December, Q4). Almost all (99%) of those who surveyed were Ukrainians, and a very small proportion (1%) were Third-Country Nationals (TCNs).

In Q4 of 2023, 31 per cent of Ukrainian respondents were prospective returnees (intended to stay in Ukraine), while 49 per cent planned to go for a short visit (short-time visitors). Another 20 per cent were unsure about the length of their visit.

The report delves into the socio-demographic profiles, reasons for return, duration of displacement, oblasts of origin and destination, needs and assistance, and experiences of discrimination of the surveyed individuals. The report also provides information on individuals who have already returned to Ukraine after a period of displacement abroad as well as those in Latvia who plan to transit through the Russian Federation to reach areas of non-government-controlled areas in Ukraine.

Key Findings:

• Out of 8,421 respondents, 92 per cent were planning to return to the same oblast of origin while the remaining 8 per cent aimed to reach a different one. Out of those returning to a different oblast: Kyiv city, Vinnytska and Odeska
• 84 per cent of respondents had crossed back to Ukraine twice or more prior to the survey.
• 58 per cent were already displaced between January and June 2022.
• Respondent's intentions: Short-term visit (56%), Long-term stay (27%), and unknown (17%).
• Main priority needs that were cited by respondents include financial support (34%), medicine and health services (14%) and support with personal safety and security (13%)
• 52 per cent of respondents stated they had no immediate needs.

Key Findings:

• Among respondents, 46 per cent spent more than one year in displacement. 20 per cent of respondents had spent less than a month in displacement at the time of the interview.
• The majority of respondents (57%) were travelling back to Ukraine alone. The remaining 43 per cent of survey respondents were crossing back into Ukraine as part of a group. 95 per cent of respondents travelling with a group (N=1,998) were travelling with their immediate family
• Out of 4,650 respondents, 86 per cent were planning to return to the same oblast of origin while the remaining 14 per cent aimed to reach a different one. Out of those returning to a different oblast (N=667), 16 per cent were originally from Donetska oblast, 14 per cent from Dnipropetrovska, 13 per cent from Zaporizka, and 12 per cent from Kyiv city.
• The percentage of respondents that had been residing in Poland prior to crossing back to Ukraine decreased steadily from 59 per cent in the first quarter of 2023 to 46 per cent in the fourth quarter (overall 50%).
• Overall, the top four most frequently indicated reasons for returning to Ukraine for the long-term were missing home (52%), reuniting with family (20%), working in essential services (16%), and because they had been visiting someone abroad but reside in Ukraine (15%).
• The proportion of respondents that reported having experienced discrimination has steadily risen from seven per cent in the first quarter to 18 per cent in the fourth quarter.
• Of respondents who received humanitarian assistance, the most frequently reported type was financial support (86%), for which the percentage has increased throughout the quarters of 2023.

The Return Index is a tool designed to measure the severity of conditions in locations of return. Data collection for the Return Index Round 19 took place during May and August 2023 across 9 governorates, 39 districts and 2,170 locations in Iraq. During this round, an additional thirteen locations of return were assessed.