This latest round of Emergency Trends Tracking was initiated in April 2024 to monitor displacements movements during the Gu rainy season. Districts covered in this round include Afgooye, Afmadow, Baardheere, Baidoa, Balcad, Belet Weyne, Belet Xaawo, Dayniile, Doolow, Gaalkacyo, Garoowe, Hodan, Jamaame, Jowhar, Kahda, Kismaayo, Luuq. ETT is a crisis-based tool that tracks sudden displacement triggered by specific events or emerging crises.

The objective of ETT is to help prioritize humanitarian response and to enable partners to deliver rapid assistance. Based on previous shock induced displacement patterns, the humanitarian community expects that people will continue to move toward urban areas in search of humanitarian services. Consequently, the ETT coverage focuses on the main urban centers and surrounding villages for each assessed district. The data is collected through Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) at the location level, from Sunday to Wednesday every week. It includes information on new arrivals, numbers and demographic of IDPs, reasons for displacement, intentions, humanitarian assistance and priority needs among others.

The ETT tool also adapts to regional contexts: because of the very high number of IDP sites in Khada and Daynile districts in Banadir region and in Baidoa district in Bay region, a zonal approach has been adopted for these areas. Each week, KIIs are first conducted at the zone level to indicate to the field teams which locations have received the most new arrivals and which need to be assessed.

To facilitate the joint analysis of the CCCM (Camp Coordination and Camp Management) Cluster’s New Arrivals Tracker (NAT) and ETT data, the assistance and needs indicators are identical in both tools.

Key findings in June 2024

• Around 108,000 exit movements from Ethiopia have been tracked between January and June 2024, an 18% increase when compared with the same period in 2023 (91,321).

• As of June, forced returns from Saudi Arabia to Ethiopia (57,075) surpassed all returns in 2023 (42,948), a 33% increase. Such increase has been particularly pronounced on those returning to Tigray (+69%, 16,600), Amhara (+45%, 20,100) and Oromia (+31%, 17,600).

• Movements tracked in Obock towards the Arabian Peninsula increased by 58% between May and June, surpassing the highest number of movements tracked in December 2023 (7,403). Thus, June 2024 marks the highest figure since the beginning of flow monitoring operations in Obock in 2019. Similarly, these movements increased by 41% from 2023 (22,698) for the period January – June despite operations conducted against irregular migration in the Lahj governorate, the main landing point of migrants crossing the Bab al-Mandab Strait from Djibouti.

• When comparing the period January – June between 2023 (19,476) and 2024, there is a 43% increase in movements tracked in Bossaso heading to Yemen.

• At least 49 migrants died and 140 others went missing after a boat capsized off the coast of Yemen. The vessel carrying 260 migrants (115 Somali nationals and 145 Ethiopians) capsized on 10 June near Alghareef in Shabwah governorate. Among those who lost their lives, there were 31 women and 6 children.

• So far in 2024, 1,095 migrants have been deported from Oman to Yemen, a 40% increase compared to 2023 (781).

Following the release of the first edition of PROGRESS 2023 report, the Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) has compiled a series of National Displacement Profiles based on end of year 2023 figures. These profiles offer insights into the latest end-of-year 2023 figures, aligning with the objectives outlined by the Data for Solutions to Internal Displacement Taskforce (DSID).

The profile provides a comprehensive overview of the demographic breakdowns and geographical distribution of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Somalia as of the end of 2023. It delves into the primary areas of origin and displacement for IDPs, shedding light on the factors influencing their decision-making processes regarding the selection of solutions locations. Additionally, the report discusses the obstacles encountered by IDPs in their pursuit of durable solutions.

This compilation underscores the critical role of data in addressing internal displacement challenges and highlights the ongoing efforts to leverage data-driven solutions through collaborative initiatives like DSID.

The International Organization for Migration’s (IOM) CNI is used to provide a baseline on living conditions and needs of Afghan nationals in identified settlements rather than providing a detailed overview of multisectoral needs. Subsequent rounds will provide additional details for sectoral interventions. The CNI collect data at the settlement level through group interviews with key informants (KIs) and direct observations. Data was collected between 1 August and 26 September 2023.

A total of 24,430 movements were observed in May 2024, representing 8% increase compared to April 2024 when 22,611 movements were observed during this period. Comparing May 2024 with April 2024, Doolow (13%), Buuhoodle (11%), Bossaso (6%), Dhobley (6%) and Lowyacado (5%) FMPs recorded an increase in movements while Cabudwaaq (-22%) and Harirad (-5%) FMPs recorded a decrease in movements.

Doolow (57%), Bossaso (28%), and Dhobley (7%) FMPs recorded the highest numbers of incoming movements, while Doolow (40%), Dhobley (25%) and Cabudwaaq (13%) recorded the highest numbers of outgoing movements for May 2024.

This information was collected following attacks in the municipality of Ganthier since 21 July 2024, in the 5th communal section of Pays Pourri. A total of 3,830 people (985 households) were displaced following these attacks. All of them took refuge with relatives, in host families, particularly in the 3rd communal section of Fonds Parisien located in the same municipality. At the time of writing this report, these attacks were still ongoing. Updates will be published by DTM according to observations of new displacement. It should be noted that the municipality of Ganthier has suffered several attacks since the end of 2023, whereas in the past it had almost never suffered any (see ETT 32.1 and ETT 40 for more details on recent attacks that caused significant population displacement).