Return Intention

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has forced an unprecedented number of people to flee their homes in search of safety.

This report brings together the results of desk research and survey projects carried out by the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA), the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to detail forced displacement from and within Ukraine. It aims at providing practitioners and policy makers with a situational picture based on the perspective of the affected populations, themselves.

Starting on 24 February 2022, the war in Ukraine triggered an unprecedented humanitarian crisis and generated large scale displacement both within Ukraine and into the neighbouring countries. As of the end of September, 6.2 million persons were internally displaced in Ukraine1 and 7.4 million refugees from Ukraine were recorded in Europe.2 According to available administrative data, more than 13 million border crossings of refugees and Third-Country Nationals (TCNs) not in need of international protection from Ukraine were reported into the neighbouring countries since February 2022. At the same time, around 6 million were estimated to have returned including both from other locations within Ukraine and self-reported from abroad,3 and about 6 million cross-border movements were registered from Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and the Republic of Moldova among the neighbouring countries into Ukraine as of mid-September. 

Since mid-April, IOM has deployed its Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) tools to collect individual surveys in neighbouring countries with persons crossing into Ukraine, with the aim to improve the understanding of main profiles, displacement patterns, intentions and needs. 

This report is based on 9,495 valid surveys collected by IOM’s DTM in five European countries neighbouring Ukraine with adult refugees from Ukraine and TCNs crossing to Ukraine between 01 June and 15 September 2022: 3,519 in Romania, 3,151 in Poland, 2,418 in the Republic of Moldova, 259 in Hungary and 148 in Slovakia. Total results were weighted as per the number of border crossings into Ukraine reported in each country of the survey during the aforementioned period. 

Movements can be pendular, and do not necessarily indicate sustainable returns as the situation across the country remains highly volatile and unpredictable. Hence, individuals surveyed while crossing into Ukraine from neighbouring countries are not necessarily returnees, and conclusions on definitive trends cannot be drawn.

Since 24 February 2022, people have been fleeing from Ukraine to the neighbouring countries as a result of the war in Ukraine. As of 04 October 2022, 645,561 refugees from Ukraine and Third Country Nationals (TCNs) were registered at border crossing points (BCPs) while entering from Ukraine into the Republic of Moldova. At the same time, movements of persons crossing back to Ukraine have also been reported. According to national authorities, 170,931 Ukrainian nationals and TCNs, who have entered into the Republic of Moldova after 24 February 2022, have since exited back to Ukraine (Source: General Inspectorate for Border Police).

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has conducted displacement and intention surveys with adults (18 years and above) crossing back to Ukraine, through CBS Axa Research, since April 2022. Data is collected at two main border crossing points (BCPs) with Ukraine – Palanca and Otaci. This report presents the main findings based on data collected between 06 September and 04 October 2022. 

Individuals crossing into Ukraine are not necessarily returnees (many are making short visits) and conclusions on definitive trends cannot be drawn. The sample is not representative of all persons crossing to Ukraine, and results should only be considered as indicative.

L’enquête sur les intentions futures des déplacés internes a été menée par la matrice de suivi des déplacements (displacement tracking matrix, DTM) entre avril et mai 2022 sur les sites hébergeant des populations déplacées internes (PDI). Ces évaluations sont nécessaires dans ce contexte de crise volatile durant lequel des ménages se déplacent dans des localités ou sites considérés comme plus sécurisés, puis peuvent être tentés de retourner dans leur zone d’origine en cas d’amélioration de la situation sécuritaire et au cas où d’autres conditions de retour sont réunies. L’estimation des intentions futures de retour ou d’intégration locale durable permettront ainsi de mieux orienter les programmes humanitaires d’urgence et / ou de solutions durables destinés à appuyer le retour ou l’intégration locale des ménages.

L’enquête a été réalisée dans 65 sites de déplacement situés dans les préfectures de Bamingui-Bangoran, Haute- Kotto, Haut-Mbomou, Mbomou, Nana-Gribizi, Ombella- Mpoko, Ouham-Pendé, Basse-Kotto, Ouham, Ouaka et la ville de Bangui. L’évaluation a été menée auprès d’un échantillon de 3 017 ménages. L’échelle de représentativité est la préfecture et l’échantillon a été élaboré selon un niveau de confiance de 95 pour cent et une marge d’erreur de maximum 5 pour cent à l’échelle de chaque préfecture. La répartition de l’échantillon dans chaque préfecture a été déterminée proportionnellement au poids de la population dans chaque site et les ménages ont été aléatoirement interrogés dans chaque site. Le tableau ci-dessous résume les résultats clés de cette évaluation.

This report is composed of a set of maps presenting the different migration phenomena and trends in Chad. It describes the various population movements recorded from, to and within Chadian territory and profiles the populations on the move.

The types of mobility covered in this paper include socioeconomic movements; movements of Chadians abroad and of foreign nationals in Chad; transhumance; forced displacement and IOM-facilitated returns. Often, these different mobilities intersect and intertwine. This report attempts to highlight this link and to better understand the related dynamics.

This report is the result of a compilation of various databases, reports from different information sources and testimonies collected directly from mobile populations or key informants. The sources are indicated on each page.

While it can’t be considered complete or representative, the report provides a general picture of the migration situation in Chad.

Since 24 February 2022, people have been fleeing from Ukraine to the neighbouring countries as a result of the war in Ukraine. As of 04 September 2022, 597,984 refugees from Ukraine and Third Country Nationals (TCNs) were registered at border crossing points (BCPs) while entering from Ukraine into the Republic of Moldova. At the same time, movements of persons crossing back to Ukraine have also been reported. According to national authorities, 147,577 Ukrainian nationals and TCNs, who have entered into the Republic of Moldova after 24 February 2022, have since exited back to Ukraine (Source: General Inspectorate for Border Police).

Since April 2022, International Organization for Migration (IOM) has conducted displacement and intention surveys with adults (18 years and above) crossing back to Ukraine, through CBS Axa Research. Data has been collected at two main border crossing points (BCPs) with Ukraine – Palanca and Otaci – since 16 April 2022. This report presents the main findings based on data collected between 20 July and 04 September 2022. 

Individuals crossing into Ukraine are not necessarily returnees (many are making short visits) and conclusions on definitive trends cannot be drawn. The sample is not representative of all persons crossing to Ukraine, and results should only be considered as indicative.

Le rapport de cartographie des mobilites en Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre presente les tendances de mobilites et facteurs de migration au sein de la region de l'Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre (deplacements forces, transhumance, migration de main d'oeuvre, etc), soulignant la diversite et la complexite des mobilites dans la region. Le rapport se base sur les donnees recoltees au travers des outils de collecte de donnees de l'OIM et de donnes de partenaires tels que UNDESA, le HCR et les Ministeres de l'interieur. 

The West and Central Africa Mobility Mapping report is a compilation of maps showing various mobility trends and mobility factors for movements to and from the West and central Africa region (forced displacement, transhumance, labour movements, etc.) This work is based on multiple data collection activities implemented by IOM and other actors (UNDESA, Ministries of Interior of various countries) and showcase the complexity of mobility in the region.

Since 24 February 2022, an increasing number of refugees and third-country nationals (TCNs) entering Slovakia has been registered as a result of the war in Ukraine. As of 30 August 2022, Slovak authorities have reported 750,101 arrivals from Ukraine out of whom 692,924 were refugees from Ukraine and 15,547 other TCNs.

This report is based on a displacement patterns, needs and intentions survey launched by IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). All surveys were conducted face-to-face by IOM Slovakia trained enumerators with refugees from Ukraine and other TCNs fleeing Ukraine. This report presents a short analysis based on 1,298 surveys collected between 9 March and 11 August 2022.​ 

Between 9 March and 11 August 2022, IOM conducted 1,298 displacement patterns, needs and intentions interviews with refugees from Ukraine and other TCNs at 2 Border Crossing Points (BSPs) at Vyšné Německé, Ubl'a, 2 Registration centres at Michalovce, Humenné and Červená Hviezda Hotspot. 

Since 24 February 2022, an increasing number of refugees from Ukraine and other third-country nationals (TCNs) entering Slovakia has been registered as a result of the war in Ukraine. As of 9 August, Slovak authorities have reported 668,195 border crossings from Ukraine, out of whom 95 per cent were reported to be refugees from Ukraine and 5 per cent other (TCNs). At the same time, 401,945 border crossings to Ukraine have been reported since 28 February 2022 (UNHCR).

This report is based on a survey launched by IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) with persons crossings to Ukraine from Slovakia since mid-April, and presents an analysis based on 185 surveys collected between 19 April and 31 July 2022 by IOM Slovakia trained enumerators. Individuals crossing into Ukraine are not necessarily returnees and conclusions on definitive trends cannot be drawn. The sample is not representative of all persons crossing to Ukraine, and results should only be considered as indicative.