Libya: Heat Risk Along Migration Routes in Libya

Libya has recently experienced numerous extreme weather events, particularly flash floods and heatwaves, that have significantly affected communities across the country. These events, which have occurred with increased frequency, highlight how climate change affects Libyan communities, with vulnerable populations being the most affected. Data analysis is a critical tool in anticipating how these events may affect migration and displacement. Maps like those produced during this collaboration can enable analysts to identify at-risk communities and understand the specific needs of displaced, host, and mobile populations. Research teams from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the AI For Good Lab came together to investigate how extreme heat impacts migrants journeying through Libya as well as host communities residing along migration routes, and how these effects will evolve as a result of climate change. Two key findings from this collaboration are:

1. The risks experienced by migrants and host communities residing along migration routes will increase significantly under a +2°C climate scenario. Currently 8% of the mapped migration routes by distance lie in areas that experience dangerous levels of heat. In the +2°C climate scenario, that is projected to increase to 72%.
2. The heat-related risks experienced by migrants are less severe in the colder winter months, though winter migration involves its own unique set of risks. Because migrants who enter southeastern Libya from Sudan are principally displaced by conflict, that migration pathway is traversed all year round, while the western pathways are more commonly traversed in winter. As a result, migrants experiencing heat-related hazards are more likely to be found on the eastern pathways than the western pathways.