Kenya –Demographic and Displacement Calculator Turkana Round #1 (September-October 2024)

DTM Kenya's Demographic and Displacement Calculator builds on the Mobility Tracking key informant interview methodology. In locations where key informants identified 20 or more displaced households, DTM conducts a randomized household survey, with 95/5 significance at the County level. Findings from that survey, conducted in Turkana County in September 2024 are presented herein.

• 3x as many people reported that they were displaced in 2023 and 2024 than all those who were reportedly displaced between 2007 and 2022 combined. 89 per cent were displaced in the last seven months—All respondents who reported that they were displaced in 2023 or 2024 were displaced between March and early October
• Findings may indicate that those displaced in the more distant past did not remain in informal settlements, instead returning to their area of origin or another displacement location.
• The most commonly reported driver of movement was that food was not available (13%). The second and third most reported drivers of migration were lack of essential services and to avoid conflict or violence (12% and 11%, respectively).
• The most reported pull factor was improved safety (21%).
• Among 1,404 respondents, 54 per cent (54%, n= 751) indicated that they would NOT return to their area of origin even if conditions improved, indicating that many might deem recovery in those areas as impossible. When asked what conditions would need to improve to enable returns, most respondents reported “ceasefire/peace”, “access to food” and “access to water.”