Kenya — Demographic and Displacement Calculator, Garissa County #1 (September 2024)

IOM Kenya’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) conducted a round of Mobility Tracking (MT) in May 2024 in Turkana and Garissa counties. During the MT exercise, chiefs and assistant chiefs were asked in key informant interviews (KIIs) about displacement hotspots in their respective counties. Following the KIIs, DTM Kenya mapped locations where key informants reported that twenty or more households were displaced and used these as the primary strata. Then, randomized, household-level sampling was conducted using probability proportional to size, where the probability of sampling a given households was proportional to the number of households estimated to be in the primary strata. Enumerators were trained on the random walk method to identify houses, using an interval of 20. Upon identifying a proposed household, enumerators asked to speak with the head of the household and received consent to interview them about the displacement experiences of all members of the household. Household heads served as a proxy for all household members.

Key Findings included:

• 3x as many people reported that they were displaced in 2023 and 2024 than all those who were reportedly displaced between 2007 and 2022 combined. Findings indicate that those displaced in the more distant past did not remain in informal settlements, instead returning to their area of origin or another displacement location. Among those displaced in 2023-2024, 60% do not intend to return to their area of origin or move elsewhere, indicating devastating, unsustainable conditions in their homes.
• 60% were displaced in the last seven months—All respondents who reported that they were displaced in 2023 or 2024 were displaced between March and early October 2024.The most common reason for movement was a lack of access to essential services, such as healthcare and educational services. Nearly 2x as many respondents reported that they moved due to a lack of essential services than the next most-reported driver of displacement, which was floods (n=536 vs. 303, respectively).
• The most reported pull factor was access to improved browsing or grazing land (26%).
• Among 1,494 respondents, 50 per cent (50%, n=742) indicated they would return to their area of origin if conditions improved, while 39 per cent (39%, n=587) stated they intend to stay in their current location regardless of changes. Additionally, nine per cent (9%, n=131) were unsure about their decision, and two per cent (2%, n=34) did not respond. Although many are open to returning under better conditions, a significant number prefer to remain where they are.